Ask Uncle Sam
Whether you seek clarity on the US election process or have a question analysing the race, ask our resident expert Uncle Sam! Be sure to include your first name and city when submitting your question.
Q34 How did the primary hurt Mitt Romney in the general election?
Q24 How does a presidential primary help ensure that a party gets strong candidates for president?
Q20 Which Republican candidate has the best foreign policy credentials?
Q17 How will the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare affect the presidential elections in November?
Q16 Can I vote in the November elections if I did not participate in the caucus in my state?
Q14 Is Mitt Romney's enormous wealth hurting his campaign to win the Republican Party nomination?
Q13 What is the likelihood of Ron Paul forming his own political party?
Q11 What is the difference between a caucus and a primary?
Q8 Does the fact that Mitt Romney is a Morman affect his chances of being the Republican nominee?
Q6 Does Ron Paul have a realistic chance of becoming President of the United States?
Q3 Why was Franklin Roosevelt allowed to serve three terms as President?
Q2 What does the President-Elect do from Election Day to Inauguration?
Q1 When was the first year all 50 states participated in the election?
Q34 How did the primary hurt Mitt Romney in the general election?
The first thing to keep in mind is that no one really knows for sure how different aspects of the campaign affected the ultimate outcome. Brendan Nyhan makes the point well in a Columbia Journalism Review article.
But it does seem the primary hurt Romney for a couple of reasons. First, he had to tack rightward in order to appeal to his base and stake out positions that wouldn’t be as appealing in the general election. His comment that America should encourage the self-deportation of undocumented immigrants is a perfect example.
And while Romney was still pre-occupied with the primary, the Obama campaign was hammering him with negative ads across the swing states. Team Obama had the chance to define their opponent at a time when the eventual Republican nominee couldn’t respond effectively.
Q33 What's with the South? Why were Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter able to win Southern States but Obama failed quite substantially in 2008, with Republican margins increasing?
Great question. It's a bit complex but here's the cliff-notes version. From reconstruction through much of the twentieth century the South was entirely dominated by the Democratic Party. Things began to change during the New Deal Era. Under the leadership of FDR, the Democratic Party become much more economical liberal. Many Southern party members resisted this change although they by and large remained part of the Democratic coalition. The real turning point though was the Democratic Party's support of the civil rights movement. Many Southern Democrats either became Republicans or branched off to form their own party. In what has become known as the Southern strategy, prominent members of the Republican Party used racial animosity as a tool for courting disillusioned Southern Democrats. In turn, the Democratic Party no longer worked as actively to appeal to white Southern voters.
The change wasn’t entirely linear. As a native of Georgia, Jimmy Carter was able to make a clean sweep of the southern states in 1976. However, in his re-election bid, Carter lost the entire South save for his home state. Ronald Reagan's 1984 re-election was widely seen as realigning moment, in which the Republican Party cemented its dominance of the Deep South.
In his 1992 presidential campaign, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton ran as a centrist Democrat distancing himself from the more passionate liberalism that had dominated the party. And, to further boost his southern cred, he chose Tennessee Senator Al Gore as his running mate. Clinton managed to capture Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas and Georgia. In 1996, he lost Georgia but was able to pick up the increasingly swingy Florida.
Most of these Southern states will remain out of reach for Democrats for the foreseeable future. However, population shifts have moved more northerly Southern states like Virginia and North Carolina into the swing state column. The big prize Democrats have their eye on is Texas. The second largest state in the Union has a quickly growing Hispanic population that should make it more electorally competitive in the future. In the short term though, it remains deeply red.
Q32 Joint Chief of Staff Mike Mullin said the biggest threat to US national security is the national debt. What do you think about this comment?
There’s no doubt that America’s economic strength has huge implications for the its foreign policy. A country with a lacklustre economy and large debts will not have the resources necessary to pursue its international objectives. America’s global clout and ability to effectively wield “soft power" is directly related to its economic standing; you can’t hope to be a big player on the international stage if you don’t have a firm domestic foundation.
Q31 Americans die every year from gun related crimes. Why isn't gun control an election issue in the United States?
America’s emphasis on individual rights and gun culture makes it very difficult for gun control advocates to gain much traction. Gun advocacy groups like the NRA have much more political clout than those arguing for stricter laws and regulations. There’s also debate over the efficacy of gun control legislation, with some arguing that such laws wouldn’t reduce violent deaths. Our own Jonathan Bradley has a very good post on the topic.
Q30 Mitt Romney fronted the NAACP in July. Do you think this will help him gain more African American votes in November's election?
It’s doubtful that it will make much of a difference. No group votes Democratic as consistently as African Americans and one speech won’t change much. However, Jennifer Rubin rightly notes that the speech was directed not just at African Americans but white moderates as well. This was a chance for Romney to try and show that he’s not a right wing ideologue but someone who can communicate with people of different ideas and backgrounds.
Q29 Why does someone like Gary Johnson run for the US presidency when he has no realistic chance of winning?
It's all about visibility. Gary Johnson believes there is a large segment of the population who is economically conservative but socially liberal and is consequently turned off by both parties. His goal is to raise libertarianism’s national profile and put the issues he cares about on the table.
Q28 Is there really any differance between ObamaCare and RomneyCare and if so, what is the differance?
The two plans are strikingly similair. If you want to kill two birds with one stone you can read our description of ObamaCare here and consequently have a very good understanding of how RomneyCare works as well.
As PolitiFact points out though there are two noticeable differences between the laws: funding and cost controls.
ObamaCare generate much of its funding from taxes on high income earners and expensive “Cadillac” healthcare plans. RomneyCare financing “is heavily dependent on leveraging matching federal funds.”
RomneyCare was also never designed to address healthcare costs. In contrast, Obamacare institutes Medicare reforms designed to reduce expenditures and features some other cost control mechanisms such as ending the reimbursement of hospitals for the treatment of preventable re-admissions.
Q27 The US Supreme Court has upheld the Affordable Health Care Act, what does this mean for President Obama's re-election chances?
We answered that exact question over in the blog. Take a look.
Q26 In Wisconsin Mitt Romney said he would build an oil pipeline through the state if he is President, why hasn't President Obama done this?
The Keystone Pipeline would transport crude oil from Alberta, Canada to refineries and distribution hubs as far South as the Gulf of Texas. Proponents see it as a chance to create thousands of jobs and curb the US reliance on foreign oil. Opponents worry about its environmental consequences and stress that the US should be instead looking towards clean energy alternatives. In January of this year President Obama denied the application for the pipeline’s construction explaining that the “the rushed and arbitrary deadline insisted on by Congressional Republicans prevented a full assessment of the pipeline’s impact, especially the health and safety of the American people, as well as our environment.” He emphasised that the decision was not based on the merits of the proposal but on the hurried deadline. You can read his full statement here.
Q25 President Obama has officially launched his re-election campaign over the weekend based on forward not back. What does he mean?
The Obama campaign faces a challenge. On the one hand, they want to tout their accomplishments, and make clear that they believe that the last four years have gotten America moving in the right direction. But, with an economy that’s struggling and continued frustration with Washington, they understandably want to steer way from the “Hope” and “Change” style rhetoric.
“Forward” is supposed to indicate that America is headed the right way but that there’s still a lot of work to be done.
Q24 How does a presidential primary help ensure that a party gets strong candidates for president?
The length and high profile nature of primaries makes it difficult for a complete pretender to sustain the momentum necessary to claim the nomination. Throughout the course of the Republican primary we saw a plethora of candidates from Michelle Bachman to Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt Gingrich surge in the polls, yet none of them were able to sustain that momentum. The intense scrutiny that comes with being the frontrunner makes it difficult to hide your flaws.
Additionally, while it is voters that pick the nominee, elites play a crucial role in the process. Fundraising, endorsements, and partisan media are all tools that party insiders can use to channel and direct voter preferences. Many theorists argue that voters themselves have very little influence in choosing party nominees.
Q23 It has officially started, Romney will take Obama on with Gingrich dropping out. Who then will win the election in November?
We got a lot of questions about this. I’d first refer you to the answer to Uncle Sam question 10, and Nate Silver’s explication of the relationship between approval rating and an incumbent’s chances of re-election.
Speaking of Silver, his election model gave President Obama a 62 per cent chance of defeating Romney as of February 15th. I’d say Obama’s chances are around that number or maybe a bit higher. It will really come down to the performance of the economy. Still, it’s way too early to say anything definitive. Seven months is a lifetime in politics, and expect the momentum to shift back and forth many times between now and the election.
Q22 Will there be and should there be a debate between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney before the Republican National Convention in August?
Nope, there will be no more Republic debates on the schedule. With the nomination locked up, Romney has turned his sights towards the general election and will begin tacking towards the centre. He’d have no interest now in engaging in debates where there might be pressure to play to the right wing base.
The GOP primary was at times ugly, and it’s difficult to see what would be gained by drawing out the process even longer. Some Paul supporters might want their candidate to get a little more TV time, but Romney should be under no obligation to continue debating at this point.
Q21 How should President Obama attack the probable Republican candidate Mitt Romney, as a flip flopper or an extreme conservative?
Excellent question. You’ve identified an issue that the Obama campaign has debated in length. For the last several months, they have focused on pinning the flip-flopper label on Romney. However, at the urging of former President Clinton, they appear to be changing their approach. From a recent Politico article:
“But Clinton, echoing survey data presented by Obama’s own pollster Joel Benenson, quietly argued that the empty-core approach failed to capitalize on what they see as Romney’s greatest vulnerability: An embrace of a brand of tea party conservatism that turns off Hispanics, women and moderate independents.
A more effective strategy, Clinton has told anyone who would listen, would be to focus almost exclusively on Romney’s description of himself as a “severe conservative,” to deny him any chance to tack back to the center, according to three Democrats close to the situation.”
Overall, this seems like the better approach. While the Republican base might be put off by Romney’s lack of a consistent conservative ideology, it’s not like they won’t vote for him. Moderates on the other hand, will probably be more concerned with portrayals of Romney as an extreme conservative.
The article also points out that just because the Obama campaign focuses on one approach it doesn’t have to completely abandon the other. It might even be possible to draw on both tactics at once; characterising Romney as an out of touch candidate, whose recent embrace of right wing politics is emblematic of the Republican Party’s increasing extremism.
Q20 Which Republican candidate has the best foreign policy credentials?
Newt Gingrich is involved with the Council on Foreign Relations and as House Speaker he “weighed in on the U.S. interventions in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Haiti and was a key supporter of North American Free Trade Agreement and other major Clinton-era trade deals.”
Ron Paul is currently a member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and is the author of A Foreign Policy of Freedom: Peace, Commerce and Honest Friendship, a collection of his speeches on international affairs.
Mitt Romney was the head of the organising committee for the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, working closely with the International Olympic Committee in organising what is widely considered a successful Olympic Games.
Rick Santorum spent eight years on the Senate Armed Services Committee and was the author of the “Syrian Accountability Act” and the “Iran Freedom and Support Act.”
Q19 In the CNN debate in Arizona both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum were talking about earmarking. What is earmarking?
As you must have gathered from the debate, there is much disagreement over the merits of the earmark. Proponents see earmarks as a way of ensuring that government funds go directly to specified projects. Jonathan Rauch argues that earmarking allows for transparency, flexibility and localised expertise.
Opponents contend that members of Congress commonly use the process to steer funds to their own state or district. Often, the earmarks have little to do with the bill itself, and members of Congress don’t have time to individually review each earmark in a piece of legislation.
Q18 Does Mitt Romney need to knock out the three remaining Republican candidates quickly to have any chance against Obama?
I don’t dispute that it’s in Romney's interest to wrap up the primaries as quickly as possible. The challenge from Santorum has forced Romney to tack further to the right, and prevented him from focusing his time and resources on the general election. The often ugly campaign has also done nothing to boost his popularity.
That being said, I don’t think the length of the nomination will have a major impact on the ultimate outcome of the election. Once Romney is officially the nominee, the party will inevitably coalesce around him in their effort to defeat Obama. Issues such as the state of the economy and the popularity of the president will ultimately decide this election. So yes, Romney probably wants to knock out the other candidates quickly, but it’s not imperative for him to do so.
Q17 How will the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare affect the presidential elections in November?
People are of different minds on this question. Some think that striking down the Affordable Care Act could actually help Obama’s re-election efforts since the relatively unpopular individual mandate would cease to be an issue on the campaign trail. Such a ruling might also re-energize the base of the Democratic Party.
On the other hand, Obama would look weak if he loses his central legislative accomplishment. The public has more trust in the court than it does in the political branches of government, and such a public rebuff from the judiciary could turn public sentiment against the Obama administration.
From where I’m standing, I see the second option as somewhat more plausible. In any case, Obama’s legacy would almost certainly be diminished if the law is overturned. Even if Obama is re-elected, it will be impossible to enact legislation on the same scale as the AFA. Elections matter, but it’s what you accomplish in office that ultimately determines your place in history.
Q16 Can I vote in the November elections if I did not participate in the caucus in my state?
Yes, you can. Just make sure you register to vote if you haven’t already. In some states you can register to vote on the day of the election, while in others you need to do so a month in advance. Look up the specific rules for the state you live in.
Q15 What mechanisms are in place to prevent members of one political party influencing the primary of the other party? As a Democrat, I would love to vote for Santorum, because it actually helps Obama. How would my state know my party affiliation, or how does it account for people that change their party allegiance?
The federal system allows states wide leeway to design their primary elections. Some states hold open primaries in which you need not be a registered member of a party in order to participate in either the Democratic or Republican primary. People in these states could vote in one primary and then turn around and vote for a candidate of the other party in the general election. In contrast, other states hold “closed primaries,” in which a person must be a registered member of the party in order to participate in that party’s primary. The exact rules about when you must register as a member of the party vary from state to state. Democrats in these states could still theoretically vote for Santorum in the primaries, but the process would be much more complex. To do so, the voter would have to formally change his or her party affiliation by a predetermined date. These “Democrats” would not be bound to vote for the Republican nominee in the general election, but they would have to go through the process of unregistering as a Republican and reregistering as a Democrat if they wanted to participate in future Democratic Party elections.
Closed primaries encourage more party loyalty, and help ensure that a party’s nominee will be chosen by those actually affiliated with the members of that party. However, there are also strong arguments for an open primary. Closed primaries often exclude independent voters*, and they also prevent moderate members of one party from crossing over and voting for a candidate from the other party who is more in line with their views.
The differences between open and closed primary systems raise interesting questions about the relative balance of power between parties and individuals in the electoral system. There are those who emphasize that political parties should have broad rights to choose who represents them as their nominee. In contrast, many others argue that primaries are not “internal party affairs,” (PDF) and consequently it should be the citizens not the political parties who determine the mechanism by which candidates are selected for the general election. Our in-house election expert Luke Freedman has written a piece defending open primaries, but there are many others who feel differently.
*Semi-closed primaries allow independents to vote in either primary but prevent affiliated voters from participating in the other party’s primary.
Q14 Is Mitt Romney's enormous wealth hurting his campaign to win the Republican Party nomination?
In the eyes of some voters, Romney’s wealth could be seen as a positive. He can tout his success in the business world as proof that he has the knowledge and experience to turn the economy around. However, many are suspicious of venture capitalism, associating it more with “Wall Street” than Main Street. Romney also has a chronic case of foot in mouth disease; continually making comments that some voters interpret as suggesting that he is out with the struggles of everyday Americans. Romney’s wealth per se isn’t so much the problem, but when combined with his frequent gaffes, it reinforces the image of someone who can’t relate to the 99%. I think early in the campaign Romney’s wealth was an advantage, but at this stage it has become more of a burden. There are lots of different ways of framing Romney’s background, and the challenge his campaign faces is finding how to portray his businesses experience and personal fortune in the best possible light.
Q13 What is the likelihood of Ron Paul forming his own political party?
If by "forming his own political party", you mean running as an independent in the general election; I’d say it’s quite unlikely. Ron Paul knows that doing so would hurt the Republican nominee, and I doubt he would want to increase Obama’s chances of re-election.
My guess is that Paul wants to win enough delegates to be given a prominent speaking role at the Republican National Convention. And to be sure, if there’s serious talk of Paul running as an independent, Republican insiders will do everything in their power to talk him out of it.
Q12 What will be the major foreign policy issues for the US presidential election in November this year?
Obama has broad support amongst the public when it comes to foreign policy. Consequently, while Republican candidates have been highly critical of the Obama presidency, they've largely avoided attacking him on issues of foreign policy. It’s noteworthy that an issue that was considered a liability for Obama (he chose Joe Biden as his running mate in part because Biden chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) has become an asset in his bid for re-election.
The war in Afghanistan will likely be the major foreign policy issue, with the candidates disagreeing over the timetable for a withdrawal. While it isn’t exactly foreign policy per se, expect debates over the military budget to be an important topic on the campaign trail. Both parties agree that the long term debt needs to be addressed, but Republicans will likely argue that Obama’s proposed cuts to the defence budget are too drastic. Of course other unforeseen events, like a dramatic increase in tensions with Iran, could emerge and propel themselves to the forefront of the campaign.
Q11 What is the difference between a caucus and a primary?
A caucus is a meeting of members of a political party in order to select party delegates who choose a nominee. A primary is a publicly run election to choose the nominee for a political party. More specifically, a primary operates like the general election in that voters go to a polling place and cast a ballot. Delegates are allocated based on results of the voting. In a caucus, voters go to a designated meeting space and divide themselves according to the candidate they support, with undecided attendees in a separate group. Caucus goers then have a chance to persuade the undecided voters to support the candidate of their choice. At the end of the process the number of supporters of each candidate is recorded and delegates are awarded accordingly. You can read more about primaries and caucuses here.
Q10 President Obama has no chance of losing the November Presidential election regardless of who he is up against. What do you think about this?
Simply put, it’s not true. More than anything else, the election will be a referendum on President Obama. To quote Nate Silver who runs the excellent 538 political blog for The New York Times:
“Historically, the best predictor of a president’s re-election chances has been approval rating. Since World War II, every president with an approval rating at least a few points above 50 percent has won re-election. Every president with a rating clearly below 50 percent has lost.”
Obama’s approval rating, and subsequently his chances of re-election, hinge on the performance of the economy. If job growth is strong this year he has an excellent chance of being re-elected; if the economy falters he has a tough task ahead of him. Today, February 5th, I give Obama a tad under 60% chance of being re-elected. But, a whole lot can change over the course of the next several months."
Q9 Ron Paul has said if he is President of the United States he will cut the US debt by $1 trillion. How will he do this?
Ron Paul’s proposal calls for reducing federal spending by $1 trillion in his first year in office. He would cut the federal workforce by 10%, eliminate five cabinet departments and the Transportation Security Administration, stop all foreign aid, and drastically reduce military spending mostly by ending all foreign wars. His full proposal is outlined in his “Plan to Restore America”.
Q8 Does the fact that Mitt Romney is a Morman affect his chances of being the Republican nominee?
My prediction is that it won’t matter all that much. It’s probably hurting him a bit in the primaries, but it doesn't look like it will stop him from getting the nomination. In the general election, I imagine that most social conservatives will be more worried about the prospect of Obama being re-elected than about a Mormon becoming a president.
There are more subtle ways in which it could play a factor though. New York Times columnist Frank Bruni speculates that Romney is perceived as “aloof” in part because he talks so little about his Mormon faith; a central part of his identity. The Romney campaign also does not draw attention to his very high rates of charitable giving, possibly because much of his donations go to the LDS Church.
Q7 Newt Gingrich has said if he is President he will have an American colony on the Moon, were will he get the money from?
The Moon people (who currently inhabit the dark side of the moon) place an extremely high value on everyday Earth objects such as buttons and tablecloths. Americans travelling to the Moon will set up trade alliances with the Moon people, offering them the buttons they crave in exchange for precious metals. Within two years, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that this trade alliance will have covered all costs associated with setting up a Moon colony.
In all seriousness, Gingrich argues that private enterprise and entrepreneurship could help further space exploration at a much lower cost to the taxpayer. In his book Real Change, he proposed offering 5 billion dollars to the first private group to set up a base on the moon.
Q6 Does Ron Paul have a realistic chance of becoming President of the United States?
Our election expert Luke Freedman addressed this topic in a blog post before the Iowa caucus.
“Even if Ron Paul were to win in Iowa, there is almost no realistic chance that he could go on to claim the nomination. Mr Paul's firm libertarian views are just too far removed from the conservative mainstream for him to receive substantial support across the country. However, a solid showing in the primaries would gain more exposure for his ideas, and perhaps influence the party platform. If Republican Party leadership saw that a wide range of people were drawn to Mr Paul's views, they would have to find ways of appealing to these voters.”
Q5 The US debt will probably hit 16 trillion dollars just before the Presidential election this year. How will this affect the election?
The economy will undoubtedly be the biggest issue in the election. If voters feel that the economy is moving in the right direction, Obama has a good chance to be re-elected in November. However, if job growth is slower than anticipated, the president is in for a tough re-election campaign. Economic factors like the unemployment rate will have the most effect on electoral outcomes, but, debates over the debt will play a large role as well. The challenge that both parties face is how to improve the currently fragile economy while still addressing the long term concerns that the debt poses. There will also be debates over what means should be used to reduce the debt. President Obama and other Democrats have argued for a combination of tax increases and cuts to government programs, while the Republican candidates are opposed to raising taxes.
Republicans will attack Obama for substantially increasing the debt. In response, Obama will argue that the stimulus spending was necessary to avert economic disaster, and that Republicans created much of the federal debt before he took office.
Q4 If Mitt Romney wins the nomination for the Republican party who should he choose as his running mate to take President Obama on?
Good question; first, a little background information. When choosing a vice president, presidential nominees are looking for someone who can offset some of their own potential weaknesses or liabilities. For instance, a younger candidate may select someone who is seen as an elder statesman and a more conservative candidate will often pick a more moderate running mate. Presidential candidates will also try to broaden their appeal by picking a running mate who is from a different region of the country or a key swing state.
If Romney secures the Republican nomination, here’s a few of the faces who could end up on the ticket with him:
Chris Christie (Governor of New Jersey)
Christie is one of the rising stars of the Republican Party, and his charisma could help attract voters who find Romney difficult to relate to. He’s also been one of the most vocal supporters of Romney’s campaign.
Marco Rubio (Senator from Florida)
Like Christie, Rubio is pegged by many conservatives as the future of the party. He’s young, bright, and has support amongst both tea party conservatives and Washington insiders. Rubio is of Cuban descent, and could appeal to Latino voters and also help secure Florida, an important swing state.
Rob Portman (Senator from Ohio)
A gifted and intelligent politician, Portman is well liked by the party establishment. He is known for his bipartisanship, and has many notable legislative accomplishments. Portman also comes from Ohio, perhaps the most important state in the 2012 election.
Susana Martinez (Governor of New Mexico)
She has high approval ratings in New Mexico and would appeal to Latinos and women. Martinez is not well known on the national stage, but would be an interesting pick if Republicans wanted a fresh face without close ties to Washington.
Bob McDonnell (Governor of Virginia)
Another governor with high approval ratings, McDonnell would help Romney in the South and in the critical state of Virginia. His reputation as a social conservative would also appeal to the base of the Republican Party.
Q3 Why was Franklin Roosevelt allowed to serve three terms as President?
Franklin Delano Roosevelt was actually elected president four times (1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944) although he died only several months into his fourth term. George Washington did not run for a third term, setting a precedent that presidents would only run for election twice. However, because there were no official term limits at the time, Roosevelt was able to run for a third term in 1940. In 1951, states ratified the Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution, setting an official two term limit.
Q2 What does the President-Elect do from Election Day to Inauguration?
A2 The period from Election day to Inauguration Day is called Transition. The President-Elect uses these months to prepare for governing on day one. They receive thorough security and economic briefings so that they are able to assess how their policies will work.
In the United States the Secretaries, Deputy Secretaries and Under Secretaries are political appointments. They are chosen by the President and the President's staff. Hundreds of these appointments must be made. In addition to getting policy ready, getting staff ready is another large part of what needs to be done before Inauguration Day.
Q1 When was the first year all 50 states participated in the election?
The first presidential election after the United States became a nation of fifty states was the Nixon-Kennedy clash of 1960. Alaska and Hawaii were the most recent states to be added to the union. Both achieved statehood in 1959.
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