Presidential Primaries: The Battle for Nomination

Barack Obama Mitt Romney Michele Bachmann Newt Gingrich Jon Huntsman Ron Paul Rick Perry Rick Santorum
               


Results

Republican Delegates
(2286 in total, 1144 required to win)

  Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum
Delegates 145 118 1433 267

Source: Real Clear Politics


Republican Primaries & Caucuses Results (%)

State Gingrich Huntsman Paul Perry Romney Santorum
South Dakota 4.0 0.0 13.0 0.0 66.1 11.5
New Jersey 3.1 0.0 10.4 0.0 81.3 5.2
New Mexico 5.8 0.0 10.3 0.0 73.3 10.5
Montana 4.3 0.0 14.4 0.0 68.4 8.9
California 3.8 0.0 10.2 0.0 79.6 5.2
Texas 4.7 0.7 11.9 0.0 69.0 8.0
Kentucky 5.9 0.0 12.5 0.0 68.8 8.9
Arkansas 4.9 0.0 13.4 0.0 68.3 13.3
Oregon 5.5 0.0 12.9 0.0 72.1 12.5
Nebraska 5.2 0.0 10.0 0.0 70.9 14.0
West Virginia  6.3  11.0 11.0  0.0  69.6 12.1
North Carolina 7.6 0.1 11.1 0.0  65.7  10.4
Indiana  6.4  0.0 15.6 0.0 64.7  13.3
Rhode Island 6.1 0.0 23.9 0.0 63.2 5.7
New York 12.7 0.0 15.3 0.0 63.3 8.7
Pennsylvania 10.5  0.0 13.2  0.0 58.0  18.3
Delaware 27.1 0.0 10.6 0.0 56.5 5.9
Connecticut 10.3 0.0 13.4 0.0 67.5 6.8
Wisconsin 5.9 0.7 11.2 0.0 44.1 36.9
District of Columbia 10.7 7.0 12.0 0.0 70.2 12.0
Maryland 10.9 0.6 9.5 0.4 49.2 28.9
Louisiana 15.9  0.1 6.1 0.5 26.7 49.0
Illinois 8.0 0.0 9.3 0.6 46.7 35.0
Puerto Rico 2.2 0.0 1.3 0.0 88.0 8.5
Hawaii 10.9 0.0 19.3 0.0 44.5 25.3
Mississippi 31.2 0.1 4.4 0.5 30.6 32.8
Alabama 29.3 0.2 5.0 0.3 29.0 34.5
Kansas 14.4 0.1 12.6 0.1 20.9 51.2
North Dakota 8.5 0.0 28.1 0.0 23.7 39.7
Massachusetts 4.6 0.6 9.5 0.3 72.0 12.0
Virginia 0.0 0.0 40.5 0.0 59.5 -
Vermont 8.2 2.0 25.5 0.9 39.7 23.7
Ohio 14.6 0.5 9.2 0.6 37.9 37.1
Alaska 14.1 0.0 24.0 0.0 32.4 29.2
Idaho 2.1 0.0 18.1 0.0 61.6 18.2
Oklahoma 27.5 0.3 9.6 0.5 28.0 33.8
Tennessee 23.9 0.2 9.0 0.3 28.1 37.2
Georgia 47.2 0.2 6.6 0.2 25.9 19.6
Washington 10.3 0.0 24.8 0.0 37.6 23.8
Michigan 6.5  0.2  11.6  0.2  41.1  37.9
Arizona  16.0  0.0 8.6  0.4 46.9
27.0
Maine 6.2 0.0 35.7 0.0 39.2 17.7
Missouri DNC - 12.2 - 25.3 55.2
Minnesota 10.8 0.0 27.1 0.0 16.8 45.0
Colorado 12.8 0.1 11.8 0.1 34.9 40.3
Nevada 21.1 0.0 18.7 - 50.0 9.9
Florida 31.9 0.4 7.0 - 46.4 13.3
Soth Carolina 40.4 0.2 13.0 0.4 27.8 17.0
N Hampshire 9.4 16.9 22.9 0.7 39.3 9.4
Iowa* 13.3 0.6 21.4 10.3 24.5 24.6

*Michele Bachmann received 5.0% of the vote in Iowa but withdrew before New Hampshire.
DNC - Did not contest this primary or caucus


Candidates

Democratic Party

Barack Obama

Barack Obama - secured the Democratic Party's nomination on 3 April 2012

Barack Obama is the 44th President of the United States. He is the first African-American to be president. Obama was born in 1961 in Honolulu, Hawaii. His mother was born in Kansas and his father was from Kenya. He was raised primarily by his mother and maternal grandparents. Obama attended Columbia University and held several jobs in the years immediately after graduation, most notably as a community organiser in Chicago. In 1988 he enrolled at Harvard Law School and then taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago.

He was elected to the Illinois State Senate in 1996 and then to the United States Senate in 2004. While a Senate candidate Obama gained notoriety for delivering the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in 2004.

Obama announced his candidacy for presidency in early 2007, he narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries and then was elected president on 4 November 2008. Obama took office in the midst of the financial crisis and in early 2009 he signed into law a nearly US$800 billion economic stimulus package. One of his first stated goals was to pass a comprehensive health care reform, and, although the process took longer than anticipated, a health care bill was passed by Congress in March of 2010. During his first term Obama also ended the military policy of don’t ask don’t tell, presided over the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, appointed two new members to the Supreme Court, and ordered a tactical mission that resulted in the death of Osama Bin Laden.

Despite these legislative and foreign policy accomplishments, Obama’s first term has been fairly tumultuous. Economic recovery has been slow and he has at times been criticised by both the right and the left for his handling of the economy. Also, despite Democrats holding large majorities in both chambers of Congress when he took office, Obama has often found it difficult to enact many of his proposed policies. Obama’s term in office has not brought the unity that many had hoped for as government partisanship remains intense in Washington, DC. Obama formally announced his re-election bid on 4 April 2011.

 Republican Party

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney - secured the Republican Party's nomination on 5 June 2012

A successful businessman and former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney is currently the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Romney spent much of his life in the business world, cofounding the equity firm Bain Capital in 1983 and then serving as the CEO of the related consulting firm Bain & Company.

In 1994, he ran an unsuccessful campaign for the United States Senate, but went on to be elected Governor of Massachusetts in 2002. Romney left office after one term and ran for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, ultimately losing to John McCain.  

Romney’s experience in the private sector and government are important, especially in an election that will focus on economic issues. Romney also has a well organised campaign and leads the Republican field in fundraising. He has been criticised in the past for changing his views in order to appeal to conservative voters. While Governor he supported a Massachusetts health care law featuring an individual mandate very similar to the Obama health care plan. He was also pro-choice while running for office in the liberal state of Massachusetts, but has since moved to a pro-life position.

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Michele Bachman 

Michele Bachman - Withdrawn

Michelle Bachman has represented Minnesota’s 6th District in Congress since 2006. A consistent economic and social conservative, Bachman has been closely affiliated with the Tea Party movement. She favours scaling back the role of government substantially, and has been a strong opponent of raising the debt ceiling. Bachman has taken conservative positions on abortion and gay marriage, and also favours teaching creationism alongside evolution in public schools. She has gained notoriety in the past for her scathing critiques of President Obama and Congressional Democrats.

Bachman’s campaign started strong as she won the notable Ames Straw Poll in August and found support amongst Evangelicals and Tea Partiers. Her support steadily declined and after a poor result in the Iowa caucus she withdrew from the race.

Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich - Withdrawn

Newt Gingrich represented Georgia’s 6th district in Congress from 1979-1999. From 1995-1999 he served as Speaker of the House of Representatives, and was one of the key figures in the Republicans takeover of Congress in the 1994 midterm elections. In 1995 Time Magazine named him “Person of the Year.” Before entering politics Gingrich was a history professor in Georgia. Since leaving office he has worked primarily as a political consultant.

Gingrich is often seen as one of the leading intellectual figures in the Republican Party. He is a strong debater with an impressive grasp of the nuances of policy issues. Gingrich’s experience and reputation as a creative thinker and impassioned leader make him a potentially strong candidate. However, he also presents some major liabilities. He has a reputation for arrogance and a tendency to make statements that get him in trouble. Many Republicans have criticised his leadership while Speaker of the House and his consulting role with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Gingrich has also had several self admitted public and private ethical lapses.

In early December Gingrich surged in the polls, overtaking Romney as the Republican frontrunner. Since then, a barrage of negative ads against him and what many perceive to be poor campaign management have caused his stock to drop dramatically. He has to act quickly if he wants to recapture the momentum that made him such a serious candidate just a short time ago.

Jon Huntsman 

Jon Huntsman - Withdrawn

Jon Huntsman is the former Governor of Utah and Ambassador to China. He served in the Reagan Administration and was appointed Ambassador to Singapore by George H.W. Bush. In 2001, he was elected Governor of Utah leaving office in 2009 to with an approval rating of 80 percent. He served as Ambassador to China from 2009 until April 2011.

On paper, Huntsman has the makings of a strong candidate. He was, by nearly all accounts, a very successful governor. A consistent fiscal conservative, he also has the most impressive foreign relations credentials of any of the Republican nominees. He is considered policy savvy, has a reputation for bipartisanship, and some political models predict that as the nominee he would have the best chance of defeating Obama in the general election.

Nevertheless, his campaign struggled to generate any real sort of momentum or name recognition. Huntsman’s reputation as a moderate is considered more of a hindrance than an asset in the current political environment. His outspoken belief in climate change, and lack of a reputation as a committed social conservative, do not play well to the Republican base. Many think Huntsman is trying to increase his name recognition in order to better position himself for another run in 2016. He withdrew from the nomination race following a poor result in the New Hampshire primary.

Ron Paul 

Ron Paul - Defeated

Ron Paul is a member of the US House of Representatives serving Texas’s 14th district. He has been a member of Congress for over twenty years. In the 1960s he opened a private medical practice and delivered over 4,000 babies. He ran unsuccessfully for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008.

While some of his opponents have been perceived as flip-flopping on issues, Paul has remained faithful to his libertarian views and has been called “the intellectual godfather of the Tea Party.” He has consistently favoured cutting taxes in order to reduce the size and scope of government, and has argued that the Federal Reserve, the primary banking system of the United States, should be done away with. Paul’s views on social issues and foreign policy leave him at odds with much of the Republican Party. He wants to reduce the influence of the United States military abroad, supports habeas corpus for detainees, and has argued for the decriminalisation of drug use.

Paul’s principled positions on issues have helped him cultivate a passionate and loyal following. However, he faces a substantial challenge in that so many of his viewpoints differ from those of the typical Republican voter. He has also come under scrutiny for newsletters published under his name in the late 1980s featuring racist comments against blacks and gays.

Rick Perry 

Rick Perry - Withdrawn

Rick Perry is currently the longest serving Governor in Texas history. Perry was first elected to political office in 1984 as a Democratic member of the Texas House of Representatives. In 1989 he became a Republican and was elected Commissioner of Agriculture of Texas. He was elected Lieutenant Governor of Texas in 1998, and took over as Governor in 2000 when George W. Bush was elected president. Perry has been re-elected three times, in 2002, 2006 and 2010.

Perry instantly became one of the frontrunners when he announced his candidacy for president in August 2011. Despite the economic troubles within the United States, Texas has experienced substantial economic growth under Perry. His social conservatism is also appealing to many Republican voters. However, Perry’s candidacy has faltered in recent months in large part due to poor performances in the Republican debates. It has been a remarkably quick decline for a candidate many thought would be the eventual Republican nominee. Shortly before the South Carolina primary, Perry announced that he would be dropping out of the race.

Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum - Withdrawn

Rick Santorum is a former Congressman and Senator from Pennsylvania. Santorum received a law degree in 1985, and was a practising attorney until he was elected to Congress in 1990 at the age of 32. In 1996 he was elected to the Senate, and was re-elected in 2002 before losing in a landslide in 2008. Since his defeat he has returned to practising law, worked at Fox News, and served as a Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.

Santorum is most well known for his stance on social issues. He has been a strong opponent of abortion and gay marriage throughout his time in office, and has created some controversy for his critiques of homosexuality. Santorum places less emphasis on individual liberty than many other candidates, instead focusing more on the virtues of healthy and stable families and communities. He has also been outspoken on foreign policy issues, emphasising the importance of the relationship between the United States and Israel and the dangers posed by Islamic fascism and Iran.

Santorum’s campaign was wallowing in relative obscurity until a recent climb in the polls culminated in his impressive showing in Iowa. His working class background, tireless and personable style of campaigning, and social conservatism, make him an appealing candidate especially in rural and religious areas. He has also shown an ability to connect with those frustrated with the current economic climate. Going forward, Santorum will try to position himself as the more conservative alternative to Romney.

Still, Santorum’s lack of name recognition and campaign funds makes it questionable whether he can compete in a long and drawn out campaign. If he is to have a chance he needs to effectively and efficiently use his recent success to bring in substantially more resources and set up a viable campaign strategy for competing in future states. 

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